What trends are shaping Africa’s mining sector in 2026, and how will the market evolve over the next five years?

The sector is shaped by geopolitical competition for mineral security, more proactive host governments and a stronger push for local processing. Africa will supply significant share of global graphite, bauxite and iron ore over the next five years, while increasing lithium and copper output.

The U.S. is backing rare earths and graphite projects. China already holds equity stakes in operating projects and is investing more in bauxite, iron ore, copper, cobalt and lithium to feed its industrial demand. The EU, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the UAE are also increasing investment in critical minerals.

African governments are becoming more active “price-setters.” The DRC recently banned copper and cobalt concentrate exports, following previous restrictions in 2013, 2019 and 2023. Zimbabwe’s lithium export caps are similarly encouraging domestic refining to increase revenue, earn hard currency and create jobs.

How could the EU’s challenges in meeting its 2030 Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) targets reshape investment flows into Africa?

Limited domestic production and lengthy mine-development timelines are pushing the EU to co-invest in African mining and logistics such as the Lobito Corridor with the aim to tie African upstream projects directly to emerging European refineries.  The EU has made Africa its top critical-minerals destination, with five of its nine global partnerships focused on the continent.

Of the European Commission’s 13 global CRMA strategic projects, four are in Africa: Zandkopsdrift in South Africa (rare earths), Songwe Hill in Malawi (rare earths), Maniry in Madagascar (graphite) and Kobaloni in Zambia (cobalt). However, two of the four projects depend on European midstream processing capacity that does not yet exist, creating potential delays beyond 2030.

How are rising energy prices caused by disruptions to global shipping routes affecting African mining operations?

The impact is greater in Africa due to mines relying on imported fuel. The majority of mines rely on diesel generators as a backup to mitigate grid instability. 

For remote and off-grid mines, heavy fuel oil and diesel can account for one-third to one-half of operating costs. Copper operating costs have increased 10–15% over the past year.

Iron ore is also highly exposed to energy and logistics costs, particularly shipping. Higher costs are widening the gap between integrated, hedged majors and exposed independent miners, potentially accelerating consolidation.

High gold and copper prices have protected margins, while lower-margin commodities such as manganese and iron ore remain more vulnerable. Remote mines are therefore increasingly adopting renewable-powered microgrids with battery storage, reducing diesel generators to emergency backup.

Nigeria and Libya, as major oil exporters, offer opportunities for greater intra-African energy trade.

How does Africa’s downstream minerals industry compare with other mining regions?

Africa faces a different bottleneck from Australia and North America. While permitting slows mine development in those regions, Africa can develop mines quickly but often lacks the power and infrastructure required for refining.

The continent is therefore moving at two speeds. The DRC has shifted from raw copper concentrate to predominantly refined copper cathode but still exports intermediate cobalt hydroxide because battery-grade cobalt requires complex processing.

Zimbabwe’s ban on raw lithium exports has driven investment in local concentrators, but processing has largely stopped at lithium sulfate due to limited chemical infrastructure.

Morocco has emerged as Africa’s leading downstream hub. Its Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. and proximity to Europe allow it to combine domestic phosphates with imported regional lithium and cobalt to supply European EV gigafactories.

Africa’s longer-term opportunity lies in regional integration, linking Zambian copper, Zimbabwean lithium and South African manganese into cross-border battery supply chains

How is Africa performing in iron ore, and which countries have the strongest growth potential?

Africa is expected to produce 124 million tons of iron ore in 2026, led by established producers South Africa and Mauritania. Guinea is central to future growth, with Simandou expected to deliver 15–20 million tons this year and eventually 120 million tons annually.

Africa’s production could reach 240 million tons by 2029, with Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone driving growth. Logistics, particularly rail and port capacity, remain the main risks.

Which African markets offer the strongest exploration potential over the next five years?

Africa’s geological endowment is driving a targeted greenfield exploration boom, despite the global shift toward brownfield projects. With high gold prices, African gold exploration reached $800 million in 2025.

Ivory Coast is emerging as a secure West African gold exploration hub, supported by geological potential, political stability and infrastructure.

The DRC remains the leading exploration destination because of its mineral endowment, with exploration expanding beyond copper and cobalt into lithium and rare earths.

Investor confidence is also supported by pro-business code reforms and royalty deductions in Zambia and Namibia. Western governments, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and U.S. and EU-backed initiatives, including the Minerals Security Partnership and Global Gateway, are increasingly supporting exploration to diversify battery-mineral supply chains.

How is mining finance evolving across Africa?

Traditional equity financing through Toronto and London is increasingly constrained, with “geopolitical capital” taking over the place and supporting projects aligned with strategic supply-chain objectives.

Key 2026 developments include the $1.9 billion Tanzania-Burundi Standard Gauge Railway, backed by the African Development Bank and international lenders, which could unlock Burundi’s nickel resources and connect them to Dar es Salaam.

The KoBold Metals and ZCCM-IH Mingomba copper project in Zambia also reflects a new financing model combining AI-driven exploration, Silicon Valley capital and U.S. strategic interests.

What key themes will S&P Global Energy highlight at AMW 2026?

AMW provides S&P Global with a platform to engage governments, companies, investors and industry leaders while sharing independent, data-driven market analysis.

A key theme will be Africa’s position at the center of U.S.-China competition for critical minerals and the different strategies being used to secure supply chains.

Another will be local beneficiation. Africa dominates minerals such as cobalt, accounting for 76% of global supply, and is rapidly expanding natural graphite production, but continues to face challenges in capturing greater value through refining.

Our objective is to use independent data to support strategic discussions and help governments, companies and investors navigate this new era of geopolitical competition and industrial transformation.